Organization: Starting Out

We've seen a successful revolution in Egypt. We also see a series of revolutions in various other countries in the region. However, the conditions in each country appear to be different in some ways:

• The likelihood of violent plainclothes or police repression
• The likelihood of military suppression
• The availability of mainstream media
• The availability of state propaganda

Admittedly, these are "old school" compared to social networking and the ability to share experiences and ideas. However, they are still important considerations in terms of establishing a self-sustaining revolution.

Violence and Silence
The last item listed, state propaganda, is perhaps the most important. Unless there is a way to speak truth to propaganda, to win new participants to the revolution, the state will simply try to use conventional means to put the protests down. Without an ability to counter state propaganda it will be difficult to create a situation where police and military both realize they are not doing the right thing and at the same know that everyone else is aware of it. Regimes do a good job of isolating everyone behind violence and silence so that they remain afraid to act.

The Eyes
Next, the availability of mainstream media. It is the eyes of the world, the mainstream media, that puts so much worldwide pressure on an illegitimate regime. All of the expatriate relatives can see the news, call home to friends and family, and speak truth to lies. And, of course, many people have access to various satellite channels and external news sources. People learn how their government lies and then turn against it. You must be able to enlist media either directly or by ensuring you have mainstream media contacts who can spread your story without having been there themselves.

The People's Army
If the army is truly made up of "the people" and you are both able to speak truth to lies and ensure that the world media will see the regimes actions, then you have a situation where you might be able to have the army refuse to kill citizens. This is a key requirement -- as it is unlikely the military can be overthrown through violence since they basically have all the weapons. No kidding right?

The Enforcers
Next come the regimes plainclothes thugs. Let's not even bother to pretend they are police or otherwise doing anything useful on behalf of the public. If the military won't stand in your way, and you have media coverage, and you can speak truth to lies - then if you are forced to defend yourself against violence you can hang on long enough to get the truth out. When the false stories are countered while the revolution is still strong the hesitant get aboard. This happened strikingly in Egypt at least twice. Each time the revolution was greatly strengthened.

Your Situation
What all this implies is that you can take a self-assessment of your situation. If the army is with the people then the odds are very good. If you don't know if the army is with the people, you can try, but you have to be able to back down and create a better opportunity if needed. In either case, you then need to make sure to maintain the moral high ground and figure out how to overcome the police and secret police violence.

Dictator for a Day
Keep in mind, the leadership of all the countries undergoing revolution have watched what happened in Egypt and Tunisia. They are certainly trying to figure out how to put down your revolution and they will face choices based on all of the above. How can they disperse crowds without bloodshed. Can they call on the army to solve their problem? Can they eliminate free press and outside visibility? Can they use propaganda to sway non-participants or otherwise muddy the waters? Can they interrupt the social networks that allow widespread communication? As a good exercise perhaps you should think of how you would silence a revolution... because dictators already are doing this.

So, where do your country and your revolution stand?

Revolution: Victory for Egypt

It will take a long time for the final shape of government to be defined but by all accounts we have victory!

Here are a couple quick twitter stream points that I think are very important for any other revolutionaries:

RevoEgypt FreeEgypt
Each time the propaganda was replaced by truth the strength of the revolution increased massively... #egypt
13 minutes ago

RevoEgypt FreeEgypt
Something for other revolutionaries in other countries to think about if they are going to try for the same. #egypt
15 minutes ago

RevoEgypt FreeEgypt
I'm thinking the taking of state TV building was a big step in giving the regime a final push... when the propaganda became truth. #egypt
17 minutes ago

Obviously, as professional analysts have said, the fact that protestors remained peaceful was very important. This gave them the moral high ground and in particular revealed the government and it's thugs as the bad guys in a way that all could see -- each time truth was able to replace regime propaganda and lies.

In a bigger sense, the trick is to look at the situation in other countries and figure out what might work. For example, if people are illiterate and can't use the Internet then things will be much different. Perhaps in that case it would be even more important to find ways to counter propaganda. Who knows, perhaps it is nearly impossible to have a revolt without widespread communication and grass-roots information sharing.

Revolution: Harness The Momentum

I am very happy with the quantity of people participating in the protests. Things are going well on that front. However, this is a revolution with many fronts. Here are my concerns captured in a twitter stream (read bottom to top):

RevoEgypt FreeEgypt
When you have finally got the whole nation to listen, start talking! Do that communication thing you wanted. #egypt
9 minutes ago

RevoEgypt FreeEgypt
STOP SITTING ON YOUR HANDS WHEN YOU HAVE ALL THIS MOMENTUM, YOU ARE WASTING IT. #egypt
12 minutes ago

RevoEgypt FreeEgypt
Convince those who FOLLOW orders of the legitimacy of the revolution and the illegitimacy of the orders being given... #egypt
12 minutes ago

RevoEgypt FreeEgypt
Was the protest not said to be about communicating? You don't have to communicate only with Barbarak and Sillyman... #egypt
13 minutes ago

RevoEgypt FreeEgypt
Officers in military have family and friends... there are people who can ask them their intentions without risk, get in touch. #egypt
14 minutes ago

RevoEgypt FreeEgypt
The revolution has weight, get in touch with people in each governorate, look for support a agreement not to use force. #egypt
15 minutes ago

RevoEgypt FreeEgypt
So, who is talking to high ranking individuals to get their commitment not to use force on protesters? Think regional. #egypt.
16 minutes ago

RevoEgypt FreeEgypt
Some folks need to be working on the next step, some the step after that and some further ahead... as well as the revolution itself. #egypt
27 minutes ago

RevoEgypt FreeEgypt
Are there any concrete plans to improve things for the common person? Let's get thinking... it won't magically happen later. #egypt
29 minutes ago

It's not just about having a lot of people. It's about finding a path the reduces the amount of bloodshed needed to succeed and increases the chance of that success.

If you agree please forward this to someone who may be able to do something about it.

Here is a short bit.ly link you can use: http://bit.ly/ezP4Iv

Revolution: As Peaceful as Possible

One of the amazing things about the Egyptian revolution is the fact that it is happening via a peaceful movement. However, as we have all seen, this does not mean that protesters are unwilling to defend themselves or risk their lives.

This movement has been as peaceful as possible. In fact, this peaceful nature and Wael Ghonim's restatement of this principle on Dream TV is one of the key reasons that so much of the populace is behind it. It is clearly the regime that is at fault and so far any propaganda suggesting otherwise has fallen flat in the face of the visible truth.

However, the fact that nobody is proclaiming pacifism suggests that the regime had better be concerned if they resort to abject violence. The revolution and it's protesters are willing to fight for survival. Not only in an immediate sense during conflict but also in a holistic sense if civil war were to break out. Everyone, even the regime, knows that the people are in the right.

Revolution: Immediate Security Issues

A rumor has circulated that confiscated phones have been bugged before the detained individuals are released. Assuming this is true:

• Do not use a phone once it has been confiscated unless to spread misinformation. Any call will identify someone that intelligence may want to detain.
• All communication should be done via external proxy. For example, twitter allows communication without direct contact between parties involved and securely if via HTTPS as does Facebook.
• Preferably all significant information, such as user names, phone numbers, email addresses, and tactical or strategic plans must be viewed via HTTPS so that it cannot be intercepted as it is sent to your computer or phone.

For more static communications outside of social networks one can set up a new account on Google. Mail and documents within Google are served using HTTPS. However, keep in mind that under interrogation anything stored in a user account may be revealed -- simply by giving away username and password details. It is important to realize that all details can be subject to discovery by regime security elements.

However, this does not reduce the effectiveness of sharing information. For example, this blog contains some strategic ideas but does not identify anyone. The only possibility is that the regime will end up looking for various target address in order to look for people who might be attempt to load it's pages. This blog, and others, can be a vital way to collect and distribute information anonymously.

I am at work and don't have time to provide a lot more information but it is vital that the revolution get serious about these types of things and work to foil the operation of the regime's security apparatus. Failing to do so may be fatal.

Sneaking in some additional thoughts while I have a moment. We need to make sure of several things:

• Not to collect everybody involved in organizing in one place at one time.
• Not to have everyone doing the same thing. For example, everyone is consumed by the Ghonim release issue... it only takes a group of organized people to alert media and push the issue. Others need to continue to focus on additional tasks. The regime must be laughing at the swarms of concern... knowing that they can simply detain individuals and progress stops.
• I don't know if you want to call them committees or not but we need to self organize. I am in communication with another person and am hoping we'll collaborate to develop strategic issues -- so, maybe we are an unofficial strategic issues committee.
• Useful committees may include a detainee release committee. This one may need people spread worldwide to keep pressure and media attention focused 24x7.
• I'd suggest we don't enumerate a list of committees. In fact, the less focused we are the harder it is to track us. People very involved know who many other people are. It's not that hard to connect and generate information without sharing contact information.
• Never forget, everything you read can be read by regime security assholes, never rely on secrecy but instead rely on anonymity and non-specific details. For example, anyone can act on items in this blog if they feel it wise, but nobody is identified in any capacity.

Let's disrupt the security apparatus of this mother fucking regime and kick some ass -- non-violently of course. Stay strong.

Finally, keep in mind, it is possible for the US government to ask Google, Twitter or Facebook to provide usage details. If that concerns you there are certainly other locations but they are likely to have the same issues.

Revolution: Civil Disobedience

I simply do not know how the regime in Egypt will fall without some type of stronger push. The regime is able to restrict the operation of the media by detaining journalists and controlling access to protest areas. The regime is able to spread propaganda through their control of traditional media sources.

I can't help but think of a more active form of civil non-violent disobedience. Steps should be taken to reduce the effectiveness of both the police and the secret police -- at least with respect to the interference with the general public and their detainment and heavy-fisted interrogations.

Things that might be able to be done quickly and easily:

• Squirt instant glue into the door locks of police vehicles
• Put water in the gas tanks of police vehicles.
• Flatten the tires of police vehicles

Some other ideas are a bit more difficult to imagine:

• Collect a list of the license plate numbers of known gov't or secret police vehicles
• Collect addresses where these vehicles are routinely seen
• Commit civil disobedience against these types of vehicles also
• Collect and distribute names and addresses of known gov't or secret police officials

Of course, in the process of these activities it would be important to consider and protect against simple counterintelligence measures.

If you have other civil disobedience ideas please leave comments. The only thing that concerns me is that anything actually done should be considered appropriate given the honor of the protesters. Disabling a vehicle might be appropriate but cutting the brake lines would endanger lives and hence would not be.

Update: I suspect it may not be wise to use instant glue. The last thing you want to do is glue your fingers to a fucking police or secret police vehicle. Regular glue will suffice though it will take longer to work.

Revolution: The 7 Demands

The 7 Demands of the Tahrir protesters:

1. Resignation of the president
2. End of the emergency state
3. Dissolution of The People's Assembly and Shora Council
4. Formation of a national transitional government
5. An elected Parliament that will amend the Constitution to allow for presidential elections
6. Immediate prosecution for those responsible for deaths of the revolution's martyrs
7. Immediate prosecution of the corrupters & those who robbed the country of its wealth

Just putting them in another location so they are easy to find...

Revolution: Army, Secret Police and Thugs

It has become clear, especially after reading this account of reporter treatment, that the secret police are in charge. This leads to some issues that are going to have to be resolved.

• As long as the secret police are in charge and suppressing media the regime may never fall.
• As long as the secret police believe they are doing the right thing they will continue to do so.
• It is fundamentally important that the secret police understand their true role in society as compared to that of the peace protesters

Yes, I know, this may be naive. However, honestly, can anyone tell me that the secret police don't believe in the lies their regime is spreading? They seem to take a lot of pleasure in their work. Too bad their work is to terrorize patriotic citizens attempting to stand up for rights. The secret police are in fact terrorists.

Has anybody told them this? How do they justify such actions? More importantly, how can this self-justification of deplorable actions be weakened by exposure to truth. Should all arrested citizens have statements or slogans to throw mental rocks at their tormentors as they suffer beatings and torture? It's sad to imagine that they would receive a lot of exposure to truth via this method.

I don't know. If someone has ideas how to reach the secret police goons, and the army that is overly willing to hand people to them, please let me know. This is a problem that needs to be resolved in all repressive and oppressive regimes.

Revolution: VP's Promises

Are the promises reported in this story only words or will they come to pass:

Egypt's regime makes new concessions to opposition
Vice President Omar Suleiman endorsed a plan with the opposition to set up a committee of judiciary and political figures to study proposed constitutional amendments that would allow more candidates to run for president and impose term limits on the presidency, the state news agency reported. The committee was given until the first week of March to finish the tasks.

The regime also pledged not to harass those participating in the anti-government protests, which have drawn hundreds of thousands at the biggest rallies. The government also agreed not to hamper freedom of press and not to interfere with text messaging and Internet.

Sunday's meeting was the broadest representation of Egypt's fragmented opposition to meet with the new vice president since the protests demanding the immediate ouster of longtime President Hosni Mubarak began on Jan. 25.

...

The two sides also agreed at the meeting that the government would open an office that would field complaints about political prisoners, according to the state news agency.

The government also pledged to commission judicial authorities to fight corruption and prosecute those behind it. It agreed to investigate and prosecute those responsible for the yet unexplained disappearance of police from Cairo's streets more than a week ago, which unleashed a wave of lawless looting and arson.

I am not naive. These promises are being reported and may appease western countries concerns. However, it is very easy to imagine that thugs, propaganda and red tape would continue to be used to limit the media -- regardless of whether or not official restrictions appear to be lifted.

To my mind, until the press is officially and unofficially free, really free, it doesn't make a damned bit of difference what the regime says.

NOTE: Other types of analysis such as whether groups should have discussions with the regime before protesters demands were met I will leave to others.

Organization: Whither Art Thou?

Belatedly I only see energy and protest. While this is a wonderful thing on its own I would also like to see better organization:

• What are the needed constitutional amendments to ease interim transition pains?
• How can the general public safely counter government propaganda?
• Where is the information about how to avoid detection by authorities when using technology?
• What is the plan to reach generations not as wired as the youth?

I think some organization would be very helpful. In particular, this would help protect against erosion as the secret police spread rumors, arrest or otherwise silence individual voices and as the government engages in delaying tactics to buy time.

Even if Mubarak is willing to be replaced -- who replaces him may be no better.

Anyway, if this organization is out there, but invisible to me due to language barriers, then that is fine. If it isn't out there then I worry that the future may not be as bright as I hope.

Write Demands on Money

Here's an interesting tweet. I know that various ridiculous messages could start being distributed by the regime's security apparatus too though:

defendfreespeak Defend Free Speech
#Egypt, write your demands on money! Pen + cash = a msg that is indestructible, widely distributed. State TV can't censor that. #jan25
2 minutes ago

You may also want to make sure that when you try to spend your money that you aren't immediately tagged as the person who wrote the message.

Egypt: Outside, Looking In

Do you live near Egypt? Do you have friends and family in Egypt?

Depending on the security implications (don't take unnecessary risks) you may be able to help the people of Egypt achieve their goals. This is particularly true if the people you know are not part of the online community.

How? By countering state propaganda. Those not online, getting live and current information, are being fed misinformation by the Egyptian government. You can call friends and family and simply discuss current issues. Let them know about "revolution radio" for example.

Also, make clear that the protesters are peaceful. It is not the protesters that are causing chaos but instead the regime's security apparatus.

It's that simple!

Revolution: Organizational Aspects

While the online social systems have been very valuable they are not the only things required to take on an established regime:

RevoEgypt FreeEgypt
whether or not written, there should be people who are working on various needs of the revolution... e.g. propaganda neutralization. #egypt
27 seconds ago

Is there somebody working on figuring out how to counter the effects of regime propaganda? Many of the problems the people are facing are the result of successful intelligence and propaganda from the regime.

You can still be a peaceful uprising while spreading truths that disarm the lies and deception of the regime. If this type of organization is not present it must become present. However, this is expressly during the revolution, not as part of the next government.

Do not confuse the revolution itself with the next government that you want to establish.

NOTE: These things may be in progress but I'm not on the inside -- nor do I need to be to throw out ideas for consideration.