Organization: Starting Out
We've seen a successful revolution in Egypt. We also see a series of revolutions in various other countries in the region. However, the conditions in each country appear to be different in some ways:
- The likelihood of violent plainclothes or police repression
- The likelihood of military suppression
- The availability of mainstream media
- The availability of state propaganda
Violence and Silence
The last item listed, state propaganda, is perhaps the most important. Unless there is a way to speak truth to propaganda, to win new participants to the revolution, the state will simply try to use conventional means to put the protests down. Without an ability to counter state propaganda it will be difficult to create a situation where police and military both realize they are not doing the right thing and at the same know that everyone else is aware of it. Regimes do a good job of isolating everyone behind violence and silence so that they remain afraid to act.
The Eyes
Next, the availability of mainstream media. It is the eyes of the world, the mainstream media, that puts so much worldwide pressure on an illegitimate regime. All of the expatriate relatives can see the news, call home to friends and family, and speak truth to lies. And, of course, many people have access to various satellite channels and external news sources. People learn how their government lies and then turn against it. You must be able to enlist media either directly or by ensuring you have mainstream media contacts who can spread your story without having been there themselves.
The People's Army
If the army is truly made up of "the people" and you are both able to speak truth to lies and ensure that the world media will see the regimes actions, then you have a situation where you might be able to have the army refuse to kill citizens. This is a key requirement -- as it is unlikely the military can be overthrown through violence since they basically have all the weapons. No kidding right?
The Enforcers
Next come the regimes plainclothes thugs. Let's not even bother to pretend they are police or otherwise doing anything useful on behalf of the public. If the military won't stand in your way, and you have media coverage, and you can speak truth to lies - then if you are forced to defend yourself against violence you can hang on long enough to get the truth out. When the false stories are countered while the revolution is still strong the hesitant get aboard. This happened strikingly in Egypt at least twice. Each time the revolution was greatly strengthened.
Your Situation
What all this implies is that you can take a self-assessment of your situation. If the army is with the people then the odds are very good. If you don't know if the army is with the people, you can try, but you have to be able to back down and create a better opportunity if needed. In either case, you then need to make sure to maintain the moral high ground and figure out how to overcome the police and secret police violence.
Dictator for a Day
Keep in mind, the leadership of all the countries undergoing revolution have watched what happened in Egypt and Tunisia. They are certainly trying to figure out how to put down your revolution and they will face choices based on all of the above. How can they disperse crowds without bloodshed. Can they call on the army to solve their problem? Can they eliminate free press and outside visibility? Can they use propaganda to sway non-participants or otherwise muddy the waters? Can they interrupt the social networks that allow widespread communication? As a good exercise perhaps you should think of how you would silence a revolution... because dictators already are doing this.
So, where do your country and your revolution stand?
